Tropical Weather Discussion

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Read below to keep up to date with the National Hurricane Center and tropical weather forecasts in the BVI and surrounding regions.The discussion features the most accurate and timely weather forecasts and storm warnings.
The National Hurricane Center is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an international leader on scientific and environmental matters and global authority on the weather and climate.


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 181248

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.


...Atlantic Gale Warning...

The low pressure currently located east of the N Carolina's coast
will continue to move eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean
while deepening. Gale-force winds associated with this low
pressure system have developed north of 30N within 180 nm west of
a cold front that extends from the low to 30N73W SW across the
northern Bahamas to the Florida Straits and then into the Yucatan
Peninsula. Winds will diminish below gale force tonight. However,
near gale-force winds will prevail through early Friday morning
as the front weaken southeast of the Bahamas. Please read the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters
Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N11W and
continues to 02N16W. The ITCZ begins near 06N16W and continues
along 0N30W to 02N40W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 02N to 07N between 07W and 15W and from 0N to
05N between 28W and 48W.



A surface ridge has established across the Gulf in the wake of
the cold front that currently extends across the SW N Atlc to
the Florida Straits to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.
Scatterometer data depicts fresh to locally strong northerly
winds across the basin. Winds will slightly weaken as the
pressure gradient relaxes across the basin during the next 24
hours. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will set-up again
across the western Gulf and persist early this weekend ahead on
the next cold front forecast to reach the Texas coast Sunday


The remnants of a stationary front were analyzed as a surface
trough that extends across the western Caribbean from 19N85W to
12N82W. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and
thunderstorms are noted west of 80W with this trough affecting
the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Patches of low-level
moisture carried by the trade wind flow are seen across the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea inducing showers. Moderate to
fresh northeast winds are seen in the lee of Cuba, and within
about 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds are
near the coast of Colombia. The cold front currently moving
across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the northwest Caribbean
this morning, then extend from central Cuba to Honduras by
tonight. Fresh to strong winds and widespread showers are
expected behind the front. Strong trade winds will pulse near
the coast of Colombia coast on Friday night and then expand
across much of the central Caribbean over the weekend as high
pressure builds north of the area.


Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers will prevail for the next day or so over the island due
to the influence of a ridge. Computer models show an increasing
of moisture across Hispaniola toward the end of the work-week
as a cold front approaches from the west. Fresh northeast winds
are expected across the Windward Passage today through Saturday
night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic in the
wake of the above mentioned front.


A strong cold front is moving across the west Atlantic from
31N77W to 28N80W. See the Special Features section for more
details about this front and the Gale Warning in effect. To the
east, a forming cold front has developed extending from a 1014
mb surface low near 34N73W to 24N75W. Scattered showers are
noted in the vicinity of these features mainly west of 70W. A
surface trough extends from 30N65W to 25N65W with minimal
convection at this time. An upper-level low is reflected at the
surface as a trough that extends from 31N50W to a 1021 mb low
near 28N47W to 21N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
north of 25N between 36W- 46W. The strong high pressure near
Azores dominates most of the east and central Atlantic, and will
move little through this weekend.

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Posted: January 18, 2018, 12:48 pm