Tropical Weather Discussion

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Read below to keep up to date with the National Hurricane Center and tropical weather forecasts in the BVI and surrounding regions.The discussion features the most accurate and timely weather forecasts and storm warnings.
The National Hurricane Center is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an international leader on scientific and environmental matters and global authority on the weather and climate.


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 232347

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.


The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa along
18W from 03N-17N. Scattered moderate convection associated to
this wave is noted from 04N to 14N between 13W and 22W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W from 01N to 18N, moving W
at 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted at the base of
this wave south of 04N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W from 02N to 18N, moving W
at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N
between 55W and 60W. This wave will move into the eastern
Caribbean through tonight.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 72W from 10N-20N. This wave,
in conjunction with an upper level trough extending across western
Hispaniola, is producing a large area of showers and tstms over
Hispaniola and the regional waters. This wave will move across
the central Caribbean today, and will exit the western Caribbean
Sun night. Moisture from this wave will reach eastern Cuba and
Jamaica this evening into tonight, increasing the likelihood of
showers with embedded tstms.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W, and extends from the SE
Gulf across central America into the eastern north Pacific
region. Scattered to numerous showers and tstms are observed where
the wave meets the monsoon trough, more concentrated on the EPAC.


The monsoon trough extends off western Africa near 16N17W to
07.5N23W to 06N28W. The ITCZ continues from 06N28W to 05N54W.
Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, a
cluster of moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between
25W and 31W.



An upper-level low centered near 21.5N98W is helping to induce
some showers and tstms across the E Bay of Campeche as well as
potions of southern Mexico. The low will drift westward into
Mexico through Sun night, and continue to enhance convection
across this area. SE wind flow will continue to transport abundant
tropical moisture from the Yucatan Peninsula into the western
Gulf the remainder of the weekend.

A 1018 mb high pressure is located just off SW Florida near
26N83W. A weak ridge extends from this high toward the coast of
Texas. The ridge will drift to over the northern gulf early next
week. Southeast return flow will increase over the western Gulf
between the ridge and weak low pressure over northern Mexico
beginning tonight. A trough moving west off the western coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula each night will further enhance overnight
winds over much of the southwestern gulf waters.


A tropical wave is over the far western Caribbean and Central
America. Another tropical wave is moving across Hispaniola.
Please, see Tropical Waves section for more details. Expect
increasing showers and isolated thunderstorms in association with
the passage of these tropical waves.

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong
winds across the south-central Caribbean, with mainly fresh winds
over the remainder of the central Caribbean and the eastern part
of the basin. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail over the NW
Caribbean. The trade winds over the south central Caribbean will
strengthen and expand in areal coverage across just about the
entire basin through early next week as high pressure builds
across the central Atlantic. Winds could reach near gale force
along the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas are forecast to build to
10-12 ft over the south-central Caribbean with the strongest winds.
Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras
at night through at least Mon night.


High pressure of 1029 mb centered near 31N49W extends a ridge
westward across the forecast area. The most recent scatterometer
passes indicate fresh to locally strong trade winds along the
southern periphery of the ridge, particularly S of 18N W of 43W.
This high pressure will slowly shift westward through tonight,
then remain nearly stationary near 30N55W through Tue night. The
tightening pressure gradient over the central Atlantic will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8-9 ft
E of the Lesser Antilles to about 45W through tonight. Then, the
aerial extent of the fresh to strong trades will decrease on Sun,
covering mainly the waters E of the lesser Antilles to about 50W.
Fresh to strong winds are also expected off Hispaniola at night.

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Posted: June 23, 2018, 11:47 pm