Tropical Storm Gonzalo Updates

Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone HELENE Forecast/Advisory Number 37

National Hurricane Center - Forecast/Advisory for Atlantic wallet 3


946
WTNT23 KNHC 161441
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE
OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS... //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF
MET EIREANN AT HTTPS... //WWW.MET.IE/.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET
OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



Posted: September 16, 2018, 2:41 pm

Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (Aviation Color Enhancement) (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Hurricane Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours

Latest Gonzalo News

All Clear Issued On Gonzalo

Just after 6am, the National Emergency Operations Centre announced that the immediate threat posed by Hurricane Gonzalo to the Territory is over. The official ALL CLEAR has therefore been declared. This means that the weather system continues to move away from the Territory, but residents should exercise caution.

Hurricane Gonzalo Forms

On the forecast track the Centre of Gonzalo will continue to move through the northern Leeward Islands tonight and be near or east of the British Virgin Islands tonight and early Tuesday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Gonzalo could become a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Strengthening

At 200pm the centre of tropical storm Gonzalo was located by an air force reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Guadeloupe radar near latitude 17.4 north longitude 62.4 west. Gonzalo is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight. On the forecast track the Centre of Gonzalo will continue to move through the northern Leeward Islands tonight and be near or over the British Virgin Islands tonight and early Tuesday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by this evening.

Gonzalo is expected to pass over the British Virgin Islands tonight

The tropical storm warning and hurricane watch issued for the British Virgin Islands remain in effect. Gonzalo is expected to pass over the British Virgin Islands tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight and early Tuesday with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Gonzalo is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches possible.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo develops; Storm Watch for British Virgin Islands

At 1:30 p.m., the National Hurricane Centre has upgraded Invest 90L (Disturbance 1) to Tropical Storm Gonzalo. This follows newly acquired data from a reconnaissance aircraft that indicated the disturbance has developed into a tropical storm. The Antigua Met Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.