Tropical Storm Gonzalo Updates

Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone CHRIS Forecast/Advisory Number 24

National Hurricane Center - Forecast/Advisory for Atlantic wallet 3


293
WTNT23 KNHC 121456
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018
1500 UTC THU JUL 12 2018

THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 57.7W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 360SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 57.7W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.4N 59.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 47.7N 52.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 50.7N 44.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 130SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 53.5N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 110SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 56.5N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 61.6N 18.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.4N 57.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
OTHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT
CANADA/CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



Posted: July 12, 2018, 2:56 pm

Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (Aviation Color Enhancement) (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Hurricane Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours

Latest Gonzalo News

All Clear Issued On Gonzalo

Just after 6am, the National Emergency Operations Centre announced that the immediate threat posed by Hurricane Gonzalo to the Territory is over. The official ALL CLEAR has therefore been declared. This means that the weather system continues to move away from the Territory, but residents should exercise caution.

Hurricane Gonzalo Forms

On the forecast track the Centre of Gonzalo will continue to move through the northern Leeward Islands tonight and be near or east of the British Virgin Islands tonight and early Tuesday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Gonzalo could become a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Strengthening

At 200pm the centre of tropical storm Gonzalo was located by an air force reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Guadeloupe radar near latitude 17.4 north longitude 62.4 west. Gonzalo is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight. On the forecast track the Centre of Gonzalo will continue to move through the northern Leeward Islands tonight and be near or over the British Virgin Islands tonight and early Tuesday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by this evening.

Gonzalo is expected to pass over the British Virgin Islands tonight

The tropical storm warning and hurricane watch issued for the British Virgin Islands remain in effect. Gonzalo is expected to pass over the British Virgin Islands tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight and early Tuesday with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Gonzalo is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches possible.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo develops; Storm Watch for British Virgin Islands

At 1:30 p.m., the National Hurricane Centre has upgraded Invest 90L (Disturbance 1) to Tropical Storm Gonzalo. This follows newly acquired data from a reconnaissance aircraft that indicated the disturbance has developed into a tropical storm. The Antigua Met Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.