Tropical Storm Gonzalo Updates

Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone LESLIE Forecast/Advisory Number 70

National Hurricane Center - Forecast/Advisory for Atlantic wallet 3


000
WTNT23 KNHC 132035
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 70
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC SAT OCT 13 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LESLIE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT
WWW.IPMA.PT. INTERESTS IN SPAIN SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE
STATE METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY AT WWW.AEMET.ES.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 9.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 540SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 9.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 10.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 43.0N 4.9W...POST-TROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.5N 9.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON LESLIE.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Posted: October 13, 2018, 8:35 pm

Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (Aviation Color Enhancement) (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Hurricane Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours

Latest Gonzalo News

All Clear Issued On Gonzalo

Just after 6am, the National Emergency Operations Centre announced that the immediate threat posed by Hurricane Gonzalo to the Territory is over. The official ALL CLEAR has therefore been declared. This means that the weather system continues to move away from the Territory, but residents should exercise caution.

Hurricane Gonzalo Forms

On the forecast track the Centre of Gonzalo will continue to move through the northern Leeward Islands tonight and be near or east of the British Virgin Islands tonight and early Tuesday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Gonzalo could become a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Strengthening

At 200pm the centre of tropical storm Gonzalo was located by an air force reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Guadeloupe radar near latitude 17.4 north longitude 62.4 west. Gonzalo is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight. On the forecast track the Centre of Gonzalo will continue to move through the northern Leeward Islands tonight and be near or over the British Virgin Islands tonight and early Tuesday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by this evening.

Gonzalo is expected to pass over the British Virgin Islands tonight

The tropical storm warning and hurricane watch issued for the British Virgin Islands remain in effect. Gonzalo is expected to pass over the British Virgin Islands tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight and early Tuesday with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Gonzalo is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches possible.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo develops; Storm Watch for British Virgin Islands

At 1:30 p.m., the National Hurricane Centre has upgraded Invest 90L (Disturbance 1) to Tropical Storm Gonzalo. This follows newly acquired data from a reconnaissance aircraft that indicated the disturbance has developed into a tropical storm. The Antigua Met Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.