At 200pm the centre of tropical storm Gonzalo was located by an air force reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Guadeloupe radar near latitude 17.4 north longitude 62.4 west. Gonzalo is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight. On the forecast track the Centre of Gonzalo will continue to move through the northern Leeward Islands tonight and be near or over the British Virgin Islands tonight and early Tuesday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by this evening.
The tropical storm warning and hurricane watch issued for the British Virgin Islands remain in effect. Gonzalo is expected to pass over the British Virgin Islands tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight and early Tuesday with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Gonzalo is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches possible.
Tropical Storm Gonzalo - A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch have been issued for the British Virgin Islands by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services.
At 1:30 p.m., the National Hurricane Centre has upgraded Invest 90L (Disturbance 1) to Tropical Storm Gonzalo. This follows newly acquired data from a reconnaissance aircraft that indicated the disturbance has developed into a tropical storm. The Antigua Met Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.