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Colorado State University

Quiet Season But BVI Still Has 16% Probability Of Named Storm Within 50 Miles

Earlier in June, hurricane experts from the Colorado State University, Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, issued an update to their original hurricane forecast showing little change to their initial predictions for the 2015 hurricane season. With an increase in named storms by one, due to the early formation of Tropical Storm Ana in May, they reiterated that we have a 22% chance of a major hurricane tracking in to the Caribbean during the 2015 hurricane season. Their findings, broken down island by island, make interesting reading and caution against complacency.

New CSU Forecast Still Calls For a Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season

Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray of Colorado State University continue to foresee a well below-average 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. A strong El Niño event now appears likely. Conditions in the tropical Atlantic remain unfavorable for hurricane formation. They continue to call for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall (as of 1 June 2015).

Klotzbach-Gray: Eight hurricanes this season

The Atlantic hurricane season should be slightly slower than initially forecast, Phil Klotzbach and William Gray said in an updated forecast Friday. The two Colorado State University climatologists now call for eight hurricanes, including three major ones to emerge this season. In June, they forecast nine hurricanes, four major, with sustained winds greater than 110 mph. They also put the probability of at least one major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline at 64 percent, down from 72 percent in their earlier outlook.

Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Maintained

Colorado State University's leading forecaster, Professor William Gray and Research Scientist Philip J. Klotzbatch have maintained their forecast issued in early April and early June and continue to call for a very active Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2011.