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Weather system across southwestern Atlantic Basin could spawn Tropical Depression

A system caused by the interaction of a tropical wave with a mid to upper level low will spread moderate to heavy rainfall from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and part of Hispaniola this weekend. Conditions in the BVI are expected to intensify tonight and into the weekend, especially on Saturday and the BVI DDM has issued a small craft and swimmers warning. The heavy rainfall could trigger the issuance of flash flood watches or warning.

Minimal impact on BVI; Tropical Storm Erika moves west

At 200 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erika has been moving westward near 18 mph (30 km/h) for the past several hours. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected to being later this afternoon or tonight and continue through Sunday. Erika is forecast to move over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next few hours, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night.

Erika slightly weaker but tropical storm warning still in effect for BVI

At 200 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today, move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Erika – Tropical Storm Conditions Will Develop Through Day

At 8.00am, the eye of the storm was about 180 miles (290 km) away from Tortola. If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 16 mph, the eye of Tropical Storm Erika will be over Tortola at approximately 7.00pm tonight. However, with tropical storm force winds extending outwards 105 miles from the centre, tropical storm winds will start being felt at about 1.00pm today.

Tropical Storm Erika approaching BVI

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.9 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and the initial rain bands could begin affecting the BVI as early as Thursday morning with more intense effects occurring when the eye of the storm passes over or near the BVI. Sea conditions will begin to deteriorate tonight. Rough seas in excess of 10 feet is expected and the Antigua Meteorological Service has already issued a marine warning for mariners, small craft operators and sea bathers.

Tropical Storm Erika expected near BVI on Thursday

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 57.6 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Erika showing little change in strength

At 11:00 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 15.2 degrees north, longitude 51 degrees west or about 909 miles east-southeast of the BVI. Erika is moving toward the west near 20 miles per hour (mph). A west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.

Tropical Storm Erika Forms On Heels Of Danny

Erika will move over warmer waters as it tracks northwestward, but vertical wind shear will only allow for modest strengthening over the next 24 hours. Once the system moves north of the Lesser Antilles, wind shear values will decrease and more robust development may become possible. At 5:00 a.m., the centre of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 14.6 degrees north, longitude 49.4 degrees west or about 1023 miles east-southeast of the BVI. Erika is moving toward the west near 20 miles per hour (mph). A westward to west north-west trend with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected in 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will approach the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early Thursday.

New Atlantic activity: Invest 98L

At 8:00am Invest 98L was located at 14.2N, 43.6W, about 1250 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this low pressure system has continued to become better organized since yesterday. Satellite data also indicates that the low's circulation is gradually becoming better defined. If current trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves westward at around 20 mph.

TS Danny downgraded to low pressure system

At 11:00 a.m., the center of what was Tropical Storm Danny was located near latitude 16.0 degrees north, longitude 62.0 degrees west or about 220 miles east-southeast of the British Virgin Islands. The low pressure system is moving toward the west near 12 miles per hour (mph). Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. The trough is expected to dissipate in a few days.
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