Latest Erika News For BVI

Minimal impact on BVI; Tropical Storm Erika moves west

At 200 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erika has been moving westward near 18 mph (30 km/h) for the past several hours. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected to being later this afternoon or tonight and continue through Sunday. Erika is forecast to move over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next few hours, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night.

Erika slightly weaker but tropical storm warning still in effect for BVI

At 200 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today, move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Erika – Tropical Storm Conditions Will Develop Through Day

At 8.00am, the eye of the storm was about 180 miles (290 km) away from Tortola. If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 16 mph, the eye of Tropical Storm Erika will be over Tortola at approximately 7.00pm tonight. However, with tropical storm force winds extending outwards 105 miles from the centre, tropical storm winds will start being felt at about 1.00pm today.

Tropical Storm Erika approaching BVI

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.9 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and the initial rain bands could begin affecting the BVI as early as Thursday morning with more intense effects occurring when the eye of the storm passes over or near the BVI. Sea conditions will begin to deteriorate tonight. Rough seas in excess of 10 feet is expected and the Antigua Meteorological Service has already issued a marine warning for mariners, small craft operators and sea bathers.

Atlantic

National Hurricane Center - Public Advisory for Atlantic wallet 5


000
WTNT35 KNHC 252341
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 73.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east of the coast of
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday night
or Wednesday.

Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). NOAA buoy 41002, located
about 105 miles west of Maria's center, recently reported sustained
winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft
observations is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States from Florida through southern New
England. These swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Posted: September 25, 2017, 11:41 pm

Atlantic Hurricane MARIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39

National Hurricane Center - Wind Speed Probabilities for Atlantic wallet 5

 
 000
 FONT15 KNHC 252038
 PWSAT5
                                                                     
 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39                 
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                            
                                                                     
 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                     
 WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
     OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
 THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)
 HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
  
 CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
  
 SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
  
 HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
  
 NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
  
 BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
 PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
 ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
  
 BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
  
 ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
  
 WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)
  
 OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)
  
 PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
  
 WALLOPS CDA    34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   6(16)   4(20)   X(20)   X(20)
  
 CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 RICHMOND VA    34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
  
 NORFOLK NAS    34  1   5( 6)   7(13)   5(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)
  
 NORFOLK VA     34  1   6( 7)   6(13)   7(20)   4(24)   X(24)   X(24)
  
 OCEANA NAS VA  34  2   5( 7)   7(14)   8(22)   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)
  
 ELIZABETH CTY  34  3   6( 9)   9(18)   7(25)   4(29)   X(29)   X(29)
  
 RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
  
 ROCKY MT NC    34  1   4( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
  
 CAPE HATTERAS  34  7  19(26)  15(41)   8(49)   3(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
  
 FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
  
 CHERRY PT NC   34  4   8(12)   7(19)   4(23)   3(26)   X(26)   X(26)
  
 NEW RIVER NC   34  5  13(18)  10(28)   4(32)   3(35)   X(35)   X(35)
  
 MOREHEAD CITY  34  5  10(15)   8(23)   5(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)
  
 SURF CITY NC   34  4   5( 9)   5(14)   3(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
  
 WILMINGTON NC  34  4   4( 8)   4(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
  
 BALD HEAD ISL  34  4   4( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
  
 LITTLE RIVER   34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
  
 MYRTLE BEACH   34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
  
 GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)
  
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
 
Posted: September 25, 2017, 8:39 pm