Latest Erika News For BVI

Minimal impact on BVI; Tropical Storm Erika moves west

At 200 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erika has been moving westward near 18 mph (30 km/h) for the past several hours. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected to being later this afternoon or tonight and continue through Sunday. Erika is forecast to move over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next few hours, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night.

Erika slightly weaker but tropical storm warning still in effect for BVI

At 200 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today, move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Erika – Tropical Storm Conditions Will Develop Through Day

At 8.00am, the eye of the storm was about 180 miles (290 km) away from Tortola. If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 16 mph, the eye of Tropical Storm Erika will be over Tortola at approximately 7.00pm tonight. However, with tropical storm force winds extending outwards 105 miles from the centre, tropical storm winds will start being felt at about 1.00pm today.

Tropical Storm Erika approaching BVI

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.9 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and the initial rain bands could begin affecting the BVI as early as Thursday morning with more intense effects occurring when the eye of the storm passes over or near the BVI. Sea conditions will begin to deteriorate tonight. Rough seas in excess of 10 feet is expected and the Antigua Meteorological Service has already issued a marine warning for mariners, small craft operators and sea bathers.

Atlantic

National Hurricane Center - Public Advisory for Atlantic wallet 5


000
WTNT35 KNHC 302034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria Advisory Number 59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2017

...MARIA NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 43.9W
ABOUT 560 MI...895 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria
was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 43.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
32 mph (52 km/h). Maria is forecast to continue moving toward
the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed through the
rest of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Maria will likely dissipate on
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Posted: September 30, 2017, 8:34 pm

Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone MARIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 59

National Hurricane Center - Wind Speed Probabilities for Atlantic wallet 5

 
 000
 FONT15 KNHC 302034
 PWSAT5
                                                                     
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  59     
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017                                            
                                                                     
 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 
 LATITUDE 42.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
 WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                     
 WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
     OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
 THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 
 
Posted: September 30, 2017, 8:34 pm