Latest Erika News For BVI

Minimal impact on BVI; Tropical Storm Erika moves west

At 200 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erika has been moving westward near 18 mph (30 km/h) for the past several hours. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected to being later this afternoon or tonight and continue through Sunday. Erika is forecast to move over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next few hours, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night.

Erika slightly weaker but tropical storm warning still in effect for BVI

At 200 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today, move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Erika – Tropical Storm Conditions Will Develop Through Day

At 8.00am, the eye of the storm was about 180 miles (290 km) away from Tortola. If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 16 mph, the eye of Tropical Storm Erika will be over Tortola at approximately 7.00pm tonight. However, with tropical storm force winds extending outwards 105 miles from the centre, tropical storm winds will start being felt at about 1.00pm today.

Tropical Storm Erika approaching BVI

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.9 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and the initial rain bands could begin affecting the BVI as early as Thursday morning with more intense effects occurring when the eye of the storm passes over or near the BVI. Sea conditions will begin to deteriorate tonight. Rough seas in excess of 10 feet is expected and the Antigua Meteorological Service has already issued a marine warning for mariners, small craft operators and sea bathers.

Atlantic

National Hurricane Center - Public Advisory for Atlantic wallet 5


000
WTNT35 KNHC 190248
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Don Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017
1100 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017

...DON DEGENERATES TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 62.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Grenada. The government of Barbados has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the
Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that Don no longer has a center of circulation. At 1100 PM AST
(0300 UTC), the remnants of Don were located near latitude 11.9
North, longitude 62.5 West. The remnants are moving quickly toward
the west near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue during the next couple of days.

The aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40
mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring over
the waters of the far southeastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force in squalls are still possible
across the Windward Islands overnight.

RAINFALL: The remnants of Don are expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts, across
Trinidad and Tobago, the southern Windward Islands, and northeastern
Venezuela through Wednesday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Posted: July 19, 2017, 2:48 am

Atlantic Remnants of DON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

National Hurricane Center - Wind Speed Probabilities for Atlantic wallet 5

 
 000
 FONT15 KNHC 190248
 PWSAT5
                                                                     
 REMNANTS OF DON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6                 
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052017               
 0300 UTC WED JUL 19 2017                                            
                                                                     
 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF DON WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH  
 ...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40
 MPH...65 KM/H.                                                      
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                     
 WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
     OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
 THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
  
  
 ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
 AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
  
  
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER BERG                                                     
 
Posted: July 19, 2017, 2:48 am