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Minimal impact on BVI; Tropical Storm Erika moves west

At 200 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erika has been moving westward near 18 mph (30 km/h) for the past several hours. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected to being later this afternoon or tonight and continue through Sunday. Erika is forecast to move over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next few hours, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Erika approaching BVI

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.9 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and the initial rain bands could begin affecting the BVI as early as Thursday morning with more intense effects occurring when the eye of the storm passes over or near the BVI. Sea conditions will begin to deteriorate tonight. Rough seas in excess of 10 feet is expected and the Antigua Meteorological Service has already issued a marine warning for mariners, small craft operators and sea bathers.

Tropical Storm Erika showing little change in strength

At 11:00 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 15.2 degrees north, longitude 51 degrees west or about 909 miles east-southeast of the BVI. Erika is moving toward the west near 20 miles per hour (mph). A west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.

Tropical Storm Danny now first named hurricane of 2015 Atlantic Season

At 11:00 a.m., the center of Hurricane Danny was located near latitude 12.5 degrees north, longitude 44.8 degrees west. Danny is moving toward the west near 12 miles per hour (mph). Movement is to the West North-West and is expected to continue for a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75mph with higher gusts. Danny could experience additional strengthening in the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward to 10 miles while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.

Tropical Storm Danny Tracking West

At 11:00 a.m., the centre of Tropical Storm Danny was located near latitude 11.1 degrees North, longitude 41.1 degrees West. Danny is moving toward the west near 12 miles per hour (mph) and a track to west to the west-northwest at a slightly slower speed is expected during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is predicted during the next 48 hours.

Forecasters monitoring Disturbance 2

On the heels of weather system which brought heavy rainfall to the British Virgin Islands last week, forecasters are now monitoring a number of waves, notably Disturbance 2. According to the National Hurricane Centre, at 2:00 p.m.,the tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganised showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not expected to be favourable for significant development during the next couple of days, but could become more conducive by the end of the week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

Bertha Approaching Lesser Antilles

Jeff Masters, Weather Underground: "I don't see Bertha being stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm as it affects Puerto RIco and the Dominican Republic. Two of our best intensity models, the GFDL and HWRF, predicted in their 06Z Friday runs that Bertha would have winds of about 40 mph as it passed over Puerto Rico on Saturday."

Invest 93L developing in the Atlantic

93L is a more serious threat than Tropical Depression Two of last week, and has the potential to develop into a strong tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday or Saturday.