At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.9 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and the initial rain bands could begin affecting the BVI as early as Thursday morning with more intense effects occurring when the eye of the storm passes over or near the BVI. Sea conditions will begin to deteriorate tonight. Rough seas in excess of 10 feet is expected and the Antigua Meteorological Service has already issued a marine warning for mariners, small craft operators and sea bathers.
At 11:00 a.m., the center of what was Tropical Storm Danny was located near latitude 16.0 degrees north, longitude 62.0 degrees west or about 220 miles east-southeast of the British Virgin Islands. The low pressure system is moving toward the west near 12 miles per hour (mph). Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. The trough is expected to dissipate in a few days.
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.
A tropical wave accompanied by a surface low pressure system is located east-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Thunderstorm activity has increased and become better organized today, and environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development over the next day or so, before becoming less conducive later in the week.
Scientists working for NASA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. have developed continually updating "movies" of satellite imagery that allows on-line, iPhone and iPad viewing of any cyclone's movement in the Hurricane Alleys of the Atlantic Ocean or Eastern Pacific Ocean.
An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. As with every hurricane season, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place. Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges: * 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including: * 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which: * 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)