At 5pm ECT or 2100Z the centre of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 16.5 north, longitude 66.2 west or about 160 miles south west of the British Virgin Islands; a flash flood warning is in effect for the British Virgin Islands until 6 am tomorrow Thursday.
The low pressure area (97L) has become better organized and produced well over one inch of rain over some of the Leeward Islands last night. The system is now located south of the Virgin Islands over the East Caribbean Sea. A second tropical wave is following closely behind and is expected to begin affecting the Leewards early Thursday.
A tropical wave will cause unsettled weather across the islands today and exit the area late afternoon, giving way to less unstable weather; shower activity is expected to reduce to near minimum by tonight. Possible rainfall total is 5 to 15 mm or 0.20 to 0.60 inch.
The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will be "below average" with 10 tropical storms, four of which will strengthen into hurricanes, Colorado State University forecasters predicted today. Two of those will become major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 miles per hour, the team founded by forecasting pioneer William Gray said. In an average year, there are 11 tropical storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico during the season that runs from June 1 to November 30.