Philip J. Klotzbach of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University has issued his predictions for the 2016 Hurricane Season.
A system caused by the interaction of a tropical wave with a mid to upper level low will spread moderate to heavy rainfall from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and part of Hispaniola this weekend. Conditions in the BVI are expected to intensify tonight and into the weekend, especially on Saturday and the BVI DDM has issued a small craft and swimmers warning. The heavy rainfall could trigger the issuance of flash flood watches or warning.
At 200 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erika has been moving westward near 18 mph (30 km/h) for the past several hours. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected to being later this afternoon or tonight and continue through Sunday. Erika is forecast to move over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next few hours, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night.
At 200 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today, move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.9 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and the initial rain bands could begin affecting the BVI as early as Thursday morning with more intense effects occurring when the eye of the storm passes over or near the BVI. Sea conditions will begin to deteriorate tonight. Rough seas in excess of 10 feet is expected and the Antigua Meteorological Service has already issued a marine warning for mariners, small craft operators and sea bathers.
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 57.6 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
At 8:00am Invest 98L was located at 14.2N, 43.6W, about 1250 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this low pressure system has continued to become better organized since yesterday. Satellite data also indicates that the low's circulation is gradually becoming better defined. If current trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves westward at around 20 mph.
At 11:00 a.m.,Hurricane Danny was upgraded to a Category Two Hurricane. The center of hurricane was located near latitude 14 degrees north, longitude 48.2 degrees west or about 1146 miles south east of the British Virgin Islands. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 miles per hour (mph). A turn toward the west is expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph with higher gusts.
At 11:00 a.m., the centre of Tropical Storm Danny was located near latitude 11.1 degrees North, longitude 41.1 degrees West. Danny is moving toward the west near 12 miles per hour (mph) and a track to west to the west-northwest at a slightly slower speed is expected during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is predicted during the next 48 hours.