Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Read below for the latest National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook which could affect the BVI and entire Caribbean region.The discussion features the most accurate and timely weather forecasts and storm warnings direct from the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an international leader on scientific and environmental matters and global authority on the weather and climate.

NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Subtropical Storm Alberto Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Subtropical Storm Alberto Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 26 May 2018 09:56:10 GMT
Posted: May 26, 2018, 9:56 am
Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018
Posted: May 26, 2018, 9:40 am
Local Statement for New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA
Issued at 439 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018
Posted: May 26, 2018, 9:39 am
Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL
Issued at 514 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018 /414 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
Posted: May 26, 2018, 9:14 am
Subtropical Storm Alberto Graphics
Subtropical Storm Alberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 May 2018 08:54:27 GMT

Subtropical Storm Alberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 May 2018 08:54:28 GMT
Posted: May 26, 2018, 8:54 am
Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

000
WTNT41 KNHC 260853
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Alberto is not very well organized this morning.  Satellite images
indicate that the low-level center is located between widespread
showers and thunderstorms well to its northeast and patches of deep
convection to its south and east.  The struggling cyclone continues
to battle westerly shear and dry air.  A recent ASCAT pass indicated
that winds near the center were not particularly strong. The initial
intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt pending a sampling of
the circulation farther east by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
in a few hours.  Alberto remains subtropical given its sprawling
structure and involvement with an upper-level trough.

The subtropical storm has now turned north-northeastward at an
estimated speed of 6 kt.  This general motion with a increase in
forward speed is expected throughout the day today, taking the
center of Alberto through the Yucatan Channel.  A turn to the
northwest is forecast on Sunday as the storm rotates around a
developing mid- to upper-level low in the central Gulf of Mexico.
Alberto is predicted to be very near the northern Gulf Coast in
about 72 hours, and should then turn northward and northeastward
when it moves inland over the eastern U.S.  The models are in
fairly good agreement this cycle, but they have trended a bit faster
from previous runs.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly, and lies fairly close to the latest consensus aids.

Only slow strengthening is expected today due to the broad nature
of the system and continued influences of westerly shear and dry
air.  There is an opportunity for more significant strengthening
tonight and Sunday when the shear is expected to lessen and
Alberto moves into a region of upper-level diffluence while it
remains over warm SSTs.  The models also suggest that Alberto will
likely make a transition to a tropical storm in about 36 hours, and
that is reflected in the official forecast below.  The official
intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous one, and is in
line with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

The HMON model is now the only intensity guidance that makes
Alberto a hurricane before it reaches the coast.  Although a
hurricane watch could still be required for a portion of the Gulf
Coast later today, the recent intensity guidance trends suggest
that this possibility is decreasing.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding
potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region
and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in
effect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of
Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later today and
tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 19.9N  85.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 21.6N  85.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 24.3N  85.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 26.2N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 48H  28/0600Z 27.5N  86.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 72H  29/0600Z 30.4N  87.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 96H  30/0600Z 33.3N  88.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  31/0600Z 38.0N  85.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg

Posted: May 26, 2018, 8:53 am
Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018

000
FONT11 KNHC 260852
PWSAT1
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012018               
0900 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  1   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   3( 3)  10(13)   3(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   2( 2)   8(10)   4(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   9(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   8(21)   2(23)   X(23)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)  13(38)   1(39)   X(39)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)  17(17)  19(36)   9(45)   X(45)   X(45)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  16(22)  18(40)   2(42)   X(42)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)  26(43)   3(46)   X(46)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)   1(15)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   5(20)   1(21)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  28(41)   4(45)   1(46)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)
WHITING FLD FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  31(45)   4(49)   1(50)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   2(13)   X(13)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)  10(10)  32(42)  20(62)   2(64)   X(64)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   1(23)   X(23)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  29(38)   4(42)   1(43)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  23(31)   6(37)   X(37)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  19(26)   5(31)   X(31)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
STENNIS MS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  19(29)   4(33)   X(33)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  20(25)  13(38)   1(39)   X(39)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)   1(15)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  14(19)   3(22)   X(22)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)   X(13)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 48   6(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  3   7(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               
Posted: May 26, 2018, 8:52 am
Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)
...ALBERTO NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat May 26 the center of Alberto was located near 19.9, -85.6 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Posted: May 26, 2018, 8:52 am
Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

000
WTNT31 KNHC 260852
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Horseshoe Beach Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in
this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.6 West. The storm
is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h).   A
faster north-northeastward motion is expected later today, followed
by a turn to the northwest on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto is expected to move through the Yucatan Channel
today and track across the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night through
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches
the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 3 to 7 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys
and southern and southwestern Florida.  Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through today. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the United States watch
area beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southwestern Florida this evening and tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Posted: May 26, 2018, 8:52 am
Subtropical Storm Alberto Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Subtropical Storm Alberto Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 26 May 2018 08:52:20 GMT
Posted: May 26, 2018, 8:52 am
Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018

000
WTNT21 KNHC 260851
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012018
0900 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HORSESHOE BEACH FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN AND CUBA PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA... IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES PORTION OF THAT WATCH AREA WITHIN
48 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  85.6W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  85.6W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  85.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.6N  85.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.3N  85.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.2N  85.9W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.5N  86.8W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.4N  87.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 33.3N  88.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 38.0N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N  85.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Posted: May 26, 2018, 8:51 am
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251603
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Subtropical Storm Alberto, located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea just east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on 1
June.

&&

Public Advisories on Alberto are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Alberto are issued under WMO header WTNT21
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Posted: May 25, 2018, 4:03 pm