A strong tropical wave and associated broad area of low pressure is moving westward across the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
Squalls to tropical storm force can be expected over portions of the northern Leeward Islands and the northern U.S. and British Virgin Islands this afternoon.
Reports from an Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft and surface observations indicate that the system still lacks a well-defined circulation, but it nevertheless is producing tropical-storm-force winds in squalls over the northernmost Leeward Islands and adjacent waters.
Although upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for additional development, this system could become a tropical storm or tropical depression at any time during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development by the weekend when the system is near the central or northwestern Bahamas.
Regardless of development, squalls to tropical storm force can be expected over portions of the northern Leeward Islands and the northern U.S. and British Virgin Islands this afternoon.
Strong winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of days. Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from the National Weather Service for further details.
Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Because of the large uncertainties regarding this system’s development and future track, it is too early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur in the northwestern Bahamas, Florida or beyond.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
- Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent