At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.9 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and the initial rain bands could begin affecting the BVI as early as Thursday morning with more intense effects occurring when the eye of the storm passes over or near the BVI. Sea conditions will begin to deteriorate tonight. Rough seas in excess of 10 feet is expected and the Antigua Meteorological Service has already issued a marine warning for mariners, small craft operators and sea bathers.
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 57.6 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the north and east of the center.